Petrochina Soars to Become Worlds Biggest, But Is It Really? 中国石油飙升成全球最大，真的名副其实？

<股票鑫东财配资>Petrochina Soars to Become Worlds Biggest, But Is It Really? 中国石油飙升成全球最大，真的名副其实？

Soars, But How Big Is It?

Co., the main oil and gas in China, the world's in the of a few hours of . Or did it?

中国主要石油和天然气生产商中国石油天然气股份有限公司( Co., 简称：中国石油)在周一几个小时的交易时间内成为了全球最大的公司。但是，它真的名副其实吗？

's debut on the Stock again the force of China's bull , which has more than its stock index so far this year. The , which also lists in Hong Kong and in New York, saw its share price more than on its first day of after it $8.9 in its first share sale in China. By some , could now be at more than $1 , which would make it by far the world's by .

中国石油在上海证券交易所首日上市令人震惊的表现再次显示了中国牛市的力量，今年以来中国股市已经上涨了一倍多。中国石油A股在首个交易日就上涨了一倍多，此前它在中国大陆共筹得89亿美元。按一些标准来衡量，中国石油的估值超过了1万亿美元，使它成为全球市值最大的公司。中国石油还分别在香港及纽约证交所上市交易。

Yet the put on and other - seem to say more about the and of China's than the of the .

不过，中国石油及其他在中国上市的公司估值的飙升似乎更多体现的是中国股市的问题和特征，而非上市公司本身的表现。

In fact, it is very to the real value of - like or & Bank of China Ltd., a state- that is the by some of . They have that keep most of their up in hands, with the few that are . The can drive up . And the is by China's , which can cause to from those on other .

事实上，很难对像中国石油和中国工商银行( & Bank of China Ltd.)这种由中国政府控股的公司进行准确的估值。这些企业拥有复杂的公司架构，它们大部分的股份控制在政府手中，少数公开交易的股份散落在不同的市场中。这种股份的稀缺性也会推高股价。中国对资本的控制使这个问题更加突出，因为这种做法导致中国上市公司的股价在国内市场与其他市场之间产生了巨大差距。按某些标准计算Petrochina Soars to Become Worlds Biggest, But Is It Really? 中国石油飙升成全球最大，真的名副其实？，中国工商银行是全球市值最大的金融机构。

, for , sold a mere 2.2% of its share to in its . When those made their debut on the , their price to a close of 43.96 yuan (US$5.90) each, from the IPO price of 16.70 yuan.

以中国石油为例，该公司在上海的首次公开募股(IPO)仅向国内投资者出售了2.2%的股份。在周一首个交易日中，中国石油A股股价开盘大幅走高，最终收于每股人民币43.96元（约合5.90美元），其IPO价格为16.70元。

that price to all of 's would give the a of $1.08 , twice that of giant Exxon Mobil Corp., the that, at least , had the value in the world, at $488 . But if you apply the price of 's Hong Kong- -- HK$18 (US$2.32) each, as of 's close -- to all 's , then the is at to $424 . The of 's is close to the Hong Kong . Yet about 86% of 's are held by its state-owned and don't trade on any , and it is hard to know what price they would fetch if all of them were to come to .

如果中国石油全部已发行股都按这一价格计算，那么它的市值将达到1.08万亿美元，几乎是行业巨头埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)的两倍。至少在上个交易日，埃克森美孚仍以4,880亿美元的市值坐在全球市值最大公司的宝座上。如果中国石油全部已发行股用H股价格（周一收于18港元）计算，它的市值接近4,240亿美元。中国石油的美国存托股票估值与H股接近。然而，中国石油大约86%股份仍在其国有母公司的手中，且不公开交易。一旦有一天真的全部公开交易，也很难预知它们的定价。

'This does not mean that is than Exxon Mobil,' says Zhou , a of at Kong of in . 'We them based on stock , their stock are from .' By law, can't of China, and are to only tiny in known as Class A . That means high from local with few other .

长江商学院( Kong of )金融学教授周春生表示中国石油股票市盈率，这并不意味着中国石油比埃克森美孚大。由于两家公司的股价来自不同的市场Petrochina Soars to Become Worlds Biggest, But Is It Really? 中国石油飙升成全球最大，真的名副其实？，因此不应该用股价来对两家公司进行简单比较。根据中国的法律，中国国内投资者对外投资选择非常有限，而外国投资者也只能对少量A股进行投资。这也就意味着中国股市价格反映的是中国国内投资者在投资渠道有限的情况下高涨的投资需求。

Given that , way of the would be to apply only to what can buy and sell -- the so- free float. The total value of 's is about $72.5 . That's still large, but close to Exxon Mobil.

鉴于这种不确定因素，或许可以采用另一个方法来对其估值：仅计算投资者能够买卖的股份──也就是所谓的流通股。中国石油公开交易股份的总价值为725亿美元。虽然这个数字也很大，但不过是埃克森美孚市值的一个零头。

It is far from clear that 's to be than its U.S. rival. 's Class A are 50 times this year's , with 20 times for its Hong Kong- stock. That with an of 10 times for big oil .

中国石油的业务是否有理由获得比其美国竞争对手更高的估价也很不好说。中国石油A股基于今年预期收益的市盈率约为50倍，而中国石油H股的市盈率约为20倍。而在国际股市交易的大型石油公司基于预期收益的市盈率平均为10倍。

Exxon Mobil is also than . 1.06 of oil last year, with Exxon Mobil's 1.56 . Exxon Mobil in 2006 of $365.5 and a net of $39.5 . 's 2006 was $91.9 and net was $19 .

埃克森美孚实际规模也比中国石油要大很多。去年中国石油的产量为10.6亿桶油当量，而埃克森美孚为15.6亿桶油当量。2006年，埃克森美孚的收入为3,655亿美元，净利润为395亿美元；中国石油2006年收入为919亿美元，净利润为190亿美元。

Of , the stock more on what they will in the than what they in the past, and does seem to have . The its will at 4% to 6% a year in the , while most other major oil aren't to grow at all.

当然，股市更多地是根据未来的业绩、而不是过去的表现来对公司进行估值的，中国石油的确拥有良好的增长前景。该公司预计今后的年产量增幅将达到4%至6%，而其它多数石油巨头预计都难以实现增长。

That is , and and , has been able to find new oil and gas to its even as it pumps more. Kwan, head of China for CLSA Asia , is still on the stock, that will more than its from high oil .

这是因为，即便是在其石油产量不断增加的情况下，中国石油也能通过收购和提高勘探开发技术获得足够的新油气资源，从而保持储量的继续增长。里昂证券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia- )中国能源研究部主管关荣乐( Kwan)仍看好该股。他认为中国石油从油价持续上涨中获得的好处要多于其海外竞争对手。

its , is also from the of , whose to put money into has drawn . The rise of China's stock has drawn to the bull in Japan and in the 1980s, and to the U.S. .

不管前景如何，中国投资者目前的高涨热情无疑让中国石油受益匪浅，他们源源不断将资金投入到股市中的做法已经让政府部门越来越感到担忧。中国股市无休止的上涨让人们担心上世纪80年代日本和台湾牛市以及美国科技股泡沫破裂的一幕可能会重演。

'It's very , , to . But what we can say is that based on , this kind of is never ,' said Zuo , chief for China in . ' in this or not is up to them.'

中国银河证券有限公司(China Co.)首席经济学家左小蕾表示，预测泡沫非常困难，几乎是不可能的。但我们可以说，根据历史情况看，这种奇迹从来都是不可持续的。海外投资者是否相信这点取决于他们自身。